08/01/2026

Solar activity has remained at low levels. Region 4494 exhibited decay in its trailing spots as its flare activity subsided. Region 4498 rotated into better viewing positioning, revealing mixed polarity just behind its large leading spot, and was responsible for a handful of low-level C-class flares.

Region 4499 underwent evolution, gaining additional spots and producing a low-level C-class flare. Region 4501 rapidly emerged this period, developed rudimentary penumbra on its leading and trailing spots, produced a low-level C-class flare and was thus subsequently numbered. The remaining numbered active regions were unremarkable in relation.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate) through August 1.

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds roughly ranged from 310 km/s to 401 km/s. A disturbed solar wind environment will likely return July 30 due to the prospect of combined positive polarity coronal high speed stream (CH HSS) effects and coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals from events that left the Sun on July 26 - 27. An additional disturbance is likely on August 1 with the arrival of an additional CME that left the Sun late on July 27.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 30, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

During the last third of July, solar activity initially rose, while remained at a higher level until the end of the month. Although solar flares occasionally reached moderate intensity, while were exceptionally accompanied by coronal mass ejections, the Earth was not affected by them (though this could still happen by the end of July or early August, partly because there is a coronal hole in the southwestern part of the disk). There is only one active region on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, as the nine regions currently being observed fade, overall activity will decline shortly after the beginning of August.

Shorter periods of increased geomagnetic activity may still occur in late July and at the beginning and end of the first third of August. Following the expected decline in solar activity, these will be followed at irregular intervals by shorter periods of deteriorated ionospheric conditions for shortwave propagation.

The predicted Planetary A Index for July 31 to August 6 is 8, 5, 5, 5, 12, 15, and 10, with a mean of 8.6. The predicted Planetary K Index is 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.7. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 135, 130, 125, 125, 125, 120, and 125, with a mean of 126.4.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/07/2026

Solar activity has been at low levels, with occasional B-class flaring and isolated low-level C-class flares observed. The largest event of the period was a C1.6/Sf flare on August 5 from Region 4502.
ÿ
The six numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk are mostly stable or in varying stages of decay. Region 4498 showed a slight decrease in penumbral extent. Region 4499 declined in length and area, though limb foreshortening hindered complete characterization of its magnetic structure. Region 4500 weakened in its leading spot. Region 4501 lost its trailing spots, decaying into a unipolar group.
ÿ
Region 4502 exhibited consolidation across both magnetic poles. Region 4503 was limited by foreshortening near the southeast limb, but appeared to show modest new flux emergence in its trailing spots to become a bipolar group.
ÿ
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
ÿ
With ongoing region decay and several active regions in the western hemisphere expected to rotate off the disk over the coming days, there is a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares August 6. Current Solar Orbiter Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the forecast period.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters remained at quiet, ambient, levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds reflected a slow wind regime, gradually declining from early values near 400 km/s down to approximately 345 km/s late in the period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain in a slow wind regime through early August 7. Later in the day, enhancements are anticipated to begin due to the arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on August 3. These CME enhancements may persist into August 8, alongside potential weak influences from a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far south to become significantly geoeffective.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, August 6, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The effects of the expected decline in solar activity (within the context of the 27-day cycle), which began before the end of July, were exacerbated by the geomagnetic disturbance that occurred on August 2 3. The effects of this decline will still be felt in the ionosphere during the first third of August. The second third of the month will bring an improvement. Then, in the final third, when solar radiation levels will once again be elevated, the approaching fall will also have a noticeable and positive effect on the ionosphere.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for August 7 to August 13 is 5, 5, 5, 5, 8, 8, and 5 with a mean of 5.9. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 2 with a mean of 2.3. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 110, 105, 105, 105, 105, 105, and 110 with a mean of 106.4.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/17/2026

Weekly Highlights and Forecast, August 17, 2026, by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels throughout the
period. No R1 (Minor) or greater events were observed. The largest
flare was a C8.2/Sn at 16/1928 UTC from Region 4506. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery following the C8.2 flare, but
analysis is ongoing in order to determine any Earth-directed component.
Other activity included the lift-off of av large filament near S16E22
at 14/0332 UTC which produced a CME that is expected to arrive on 17-18 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
17-18 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun
on 14 Aug. Active conditions are expected again on 21-22 Aug and 04
Sep due to the influences of a CH HSS. Quiet and quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, August 13, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

It appears that solar activity will remain relatively low for a few more days before mid-August; however, it is more likely that July s surprise will repeat itself and solar activity will increase after a few days. This would be a more favorable scenario for possible future developments in the Earth s ionosphere. Although the sporadic E layer often plays a significant role in the ionosphere at mid-latitudes, its season will gradually come to an end.

Solar activity will rise in the second half of the month, while geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease on average. It is hard to imagine a better scenario for future developments, and it appears that this one will at least partially come to pass.

The current solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7od5srHvDsw&t=3s[1] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for August 14 to August 20 is 5, 5, 5, 15, 12, 20, and 8 with a mean of 10. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, and 3 with a mean of 3.1. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 95, 95, 95, 100, 105, 105, and 105 with a mean of 100.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[5]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/28/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels this week. Region 4513 was responsible for an M2.2/1B flare that reached its peak on August 26. This event was accompanied by a 10.7-centimeter radio burst that reached 140 solar flux units (SFU) and a type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 930 km/s despite its relatively impulsive nature. No resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) has been observed in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this report.
ÿ
Other activity of note since the last reporting period included an easterly CME first seen in two LASCO C2 coronagraph imageries on August 25.
ÿ
The first event likely originated from the vicinity of Region 4513 around August 25 while no definitive source could be identified with any confidence for the latter. Nevertheless, both of these events are currently being modeled and assessed to determine the presence of an Earth-directed path.
ÿ
Solar activity will likely remain at minor-moderate (R1-R2) levels, with a slight chance for strong (R3) activity, through August 28, mostly due to the flare history and potential of Region 4513.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters were at undisturbed levels with solar wind speeds between ~300-340 km/s, total field at or below 5 nT and Bz northward or near neutral. Phi angle was predominantly negative.
ÿ
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue until midday August 27, when the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence is anticipated. Additional solar wind disturbances, with increased solar wind densities and total IMF, are likely on August 28 due to the impact of the CMEs that left the Sun on August 25.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, August 27, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

More or less in line with expectations, total solar activity has been slightly elevated during the last third of August, including flare activity we have been observing moderate-sized flares since August 24, peaking on August 25. Most sunspots and all larger groups are now located in the western half of the solar disk, which increases the likelihood of rising geomagnetic activity, which had been low for a relatively long period beginning on August 21. This resulted in above-average shortwave propagation conditions, including propagation in the Earth s polar regions.

Solar activity is expected to remain elevated for the remainder of August and will drop significantly in early September. Geomagnetic activity, however, will increase, whilst is likely to remain higher for the rest of August. Consequently, shortwave propagation conditions will no longer be as consistent as in recent days; instead, there will be a decrease in usable frequencies and an increase in attenuation. The beginning of September will be calmer, albeit with slightly lower critical frequencies in the F2 layer of the ionosphere.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for August 28 to September 3 is 10, 8, 5, 5, 5, 5, and 5 with a mean of 6.9. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 2 with a mean of 2.3. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 120, 120, 120, 120, 120, 120, and 115 with a mean of 119.3.
ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/14/2026

Solar flare activity was at low levels in the past week with
isolated C-class flare activity, according to NOAA's Space Weather
Prediction Center. The largest flare of the period was a C3.4 on
September 8 from otherwise stable Region 4528. Region 4530 developed
asymmetric penumbra on both its leading and trailing poles while
undergoing consolidation in its intermediate area. New flux
emergence in the intermediate area was observed late in the period.
Region 4521 began to show signs of possible flux emergence and pore
development as it produced three C2-class flares on September 8.
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to isolated to
occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through September 11.

Solar wind parameters have been at or close to nominal levels, but
enhanced solar wind conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS
(coronal hole high speed stream) influences are expected to continue
through September 10. On September 11, a separate additional positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream is likely to arrive, bringing
a mildly disturbed solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled levels
in the geomagnetic field are expected to prevail on September 10 and
continue into September 11 as another positive polarity CHHSS becomes geoeffective.

The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre predicts that
degraded HF propagation conditions on September 9 would begin to
clear up on September 10 and 11, leading to normal or normal-fair HF propagation through all latitudes as we approach equinoctial
propagation conditions.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, September 10, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The observed number of sunspot groups ranged from six to seven
starting on September 4, while there were occasional Class C and M
solar flares. Sun emitted two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) toward
Earth, but they missed the planet. Nevertheless, the intensified
solar wind following a geomagnetically quiet period from September 1
to 6 contributed to a noticeable increase in geomagnetic activity,
particularly on September 7-8. The positive phase of the disturbance
during the afternoon and especially the evening hours UT on the first
day was interesting and impressive. This was, however, inexorably
followed by a negative phase, which significantly affected shortwave ionospheric propagation as late as September 10.

No increase in solar activity is expected in the coming days either.
However, after the erratic and disrupted conditions expected in the
second third of September, a calmer period-with significantly more
favorable shortwave propagation conditions-should follow for the
remainder of the month, particularly around the equinox.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQgzXKOV2ow.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for September 11 to September 17 is
5, 5, 5, 15, 12, 10, and 5 with a mean of 8.1. The Predicted
Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, and 2 with a mean of 2.9.
10.7 centimeter flux is 108, 105, 102, 105, 105, 105, and 105 with
a mean of 105.0.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/18/2026

Solar flare activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a
chance for isolated C-class flares through September 19, according to
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Solar wind speed was
steady near 530 km/s, and negative polarity CH HSS (coronal hole
high-speed stream) effects are anticipated to persist through September
18, with additional enhancements likely today due to flanking
influences from CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that departed the Sun on September 13 and 14. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to
G1 (minor) storm levels today due to combined CH and CME influences.
Unsettled to active conditions are likely on September 18-19 as
enhancements wane.

The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre reports that there are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, and that all
three are stable. No flares are expected over the next several days. The
global HF propagation forecast for middle latitudes is normal to fair
today, followed by normal propagation in the days that follow.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, September 17, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

On the solar disc, we observe not only a small number of sunspot groups.
These groups are also relatively small and their magnetic structure is
fairly simple. As a result, eruptive activity - including coronal mass ejections - is low. Although these phenomena do occur from time to time,
they have had no impact on Earth recently. It is mainly the streams of high-speed solar wind that, upon entering the Earth's atmosphere, cause
an increase in geomagnetic activity and can therefore be predicted more accurately.

An increase in solar activity is not expected in the foreseeable
future. The current slightly higher geomagnetic activity should be
followed by a period of calm. The next period of higher geomagnetic
activity is not expected until around the equinox; during that time,
conditions for shortwave propagation through the ionosphere should be
above average, although - due to low solar activity - this will not
apply to the shortest shortwave bands.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdaQau3mlnk

The Predicted Planetary A Index for September 18 to September 23 is 10,
5, 5, 5, 4, and 4 with a mean of 5.5. The Predicted Planetary K Index
is 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 2 with a mean of 2.2. 10.7 centimeter flux is
90, 90, 95, 100, 110, and 105 with a mean of 98.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS