ABNT20 KNHC 211119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should
end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 221138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of
Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing
disorganized shower activity. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward
through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the
wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development
will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 301136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico
eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no
signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely
during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally
heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.
Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle
of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana
have become more concentrated. However, current surface observations
indicate that the system has not yet strengthened. Slow development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it
drifts westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf.
Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor
the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 311143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 100 miles south
of the coast of southern Louisiana continues to produce a small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization. Additional development is expected as the low moves
slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper
Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday.

Interests along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts
should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later
today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this morning. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Near Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A surface trough of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Storm
Dolly) is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
that extends from near Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward
Islands. Redevelopment, if any, would be slow to occur during the
next few days as the system encounters generally unfavorable
upper-level winds while moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas during the next couple of
days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 011122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 031123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Edouard, located inland over eastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Adams

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ABNT20 KNHC 061126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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ABNT20 KNHC 131134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for
development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected
to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual
development by the middle to later portion of this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 141126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are
currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level
winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a
more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to
latter portion of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 151105
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late
this week as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward
over the subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 161116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development in the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 350 miles east of Bermuda have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions could support gradual development of the system during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form during
that time. The system is forecast to move slowly today, and then
possibly turn southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. By
Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
favorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 181428
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update information on the area of low pressure
located southwest of the Azores (AL99) and to remove AL98 from the outlook.

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Recent satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
are becoming better organized in association with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. In
addition, it appears that a well-defined center is developing. If
these current trends continue, a tropical depression could form as
soon as later this afternoon. The system is expected to move slowly
over the next several days remaining to the southwest of the Azores.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Snell/Blake/Mahoney

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ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the
center of a low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the western Azores since yesterday. A short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph,
but remaining well to the southwest of the Azores. Upper-level winds
are forecast to become less conducive for development beginning
late Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles
southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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