ACUS11 KWNS 182146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182145
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182145Z - 182345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind and hail risk may continue into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed within the upslope
regime south of a stationary front across eastern Colorado. Storm
coverage will continue to increase as forcing for ascent overspreads
the region from the western trough. Moisture across eastern Colorado
remains somewhat limited, with dew points in the low to mid-50s F
and around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Nonetheless, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of hail and wind.
Higher theta-e air is in place across portions of western Kansas and
Nebraska. As storms tend to cluster and move eastward through the
evening, some damaging wind potential may spread eastward. Overall,
this threat looks to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

..Thornton/Hart.. 09/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5CXUAk1h4cbiPwINcG6XlYChE2ngZc0fFJlP4Rbmd45s_SraVX1aIKiZmzLBlLVKXQDD_Qsit0Y6vJzeZ6Y-VqGIngM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39510384 40290317 40760236 40980173 41100114 41080073
40950037 40710010 39879992 39360023 38800113 38700145
38630200 38590251 38630303 38690331 38760356 38810363
39510384

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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