ACUS11 KWNS 191943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191943
COZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast/East-Central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191943Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible across northeast/north-central Colorado this afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed at some point later this afternoon
when a convective line forms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity over the immediate foothills of
the Colorado Front Range (i.e. Arapahoe and Elbert counties) has
increase quickly during the past half hour. This activity appears to
be associated with modest glancing large-scale ascent attendant to a
vorticity max moving through southeast WY. The downstream airmass is
moist and moderately unstable, and the general expectation is for
this initial activity to grow upscale into a coherent convective
line over time.

Severe potential should remain isolated initially, with large hail
as the primary risk. Once the line segment materializes, the primary
threat will shift to wind gusts, with several strong to severe gusts
(i.e. 60 to 75 mph) possible. It may take some time for the upscale
growth to occur, but trends are being monitored closely, and a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed when this line forms.

..Mosier.. 09/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7i_I40kN9Q0m800DJuzyr4nRtUOKQ7FDhn09hDOHvR9K8oXsOCYtM_MBRqUaSYCBg9u8ApqjoS0-w45z_Scbt23CoRA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39610473 40590461 40810406 40610344 40230322 39630317
38890315 38440332 38140376 38360455 39610473

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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