ACUS11 KWNS 112252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112252
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Indiana into far
northwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704...

Valid 112252Z - 120015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704
continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704. The best
chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage/intensity have gradually increased
over the past couple of hours as large-scale forcing for ascent has increasingly overlapped modestly better low-level moisture across
portions of the mid-Ohio River Valley. Thus far, convective mode has
been a mix of supercells and linear segments, with recent reports of
1" and 1.75" hail noted in Indiana. Weak instability (500-1000
J/kg), modest mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, and cold
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -20 C) will continue to favor a
threat for large hail, especially with any persistent, discrete
supercells. Damaging wind gusts also remain possible, particularly
with ongoing/developing linear segments.

The best chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next
hour or so prior to the onset of stronger nocturnal cooling and
before the surface cold front begins to outrun the narrow, low-level
moisture plume. The greatest potential is likely to exist with any
discrete supercell located in close proximity to the surface low
noted over western Indiana. Marginal low-level moisture (upper 40s
to mid 50s F surface dewpoints) and generally veered, southwesterly
surface winds suggest any tornado threat is likely to remain
brief/localized, however.

..Chalmers.. 11/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4bv14Ml9g0L2fu137DwJEaFX2ejUgKQkvvBVI9tG6yvE2xovRBSrgTF8Dfd6jaWuOdH8nyTZAybmXKhvdNIeGeexEZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 38118794 39458742 39848693 39988673 40058629 39998600
39568585 38898592 38248635 37948664 37818697 37818744
37938785 38118794

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)